Opening markets have Islam Makhachev ~-260 and Jack Della ~+196 for UFC 322 at Madison Square Garden. Below: what those odds mean, why books priced it this way, and what could move the line before fight night.
What the odds actually mean
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American → implied probability
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Makhachev -260 → ~72.2%
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Jack Della +196 → ~33.8%
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They don’t add to 100% because of the book’s margin (vig) and market adjustments.
Plain English: Books are saying “Makhachev wins ~7 out of 10.” That can change with new info (weigh-ins, camp news, face-offs).
Why the market opened here
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Portable grappling: Chain wrestling, fence control, and back rides “scale” to 170 lb.
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Five rounds favor control: More minutes = more clinches, mat returns, and banked top time.
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JDM’s offense creates windows: Crisp 1–2 and body work are elite—but long combos invite reactive shots if frames aren’t set.
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Trust factor: Bettors trust Makhachev’s process to reduce risk across 25 minutes.
Clear win paths
Islam Makhachev (fav)
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First clean clinch = momentum: body lock at the fence → trip → half-guard pummel.
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Back control = scorecard safety: smother resets, threaten hand-triangles, drain the clock.
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GNP to submissions/10-8s: force defensive reactions to open hooks/chokes.
Jack Della Maddalena (dog)
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Lead hand + early frames: buy the first 90 seconds each round; keep the hug off.
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Exit elbows on breaks: punish re-entries after defended shots.
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Kick the southpaw’s lead leg + straight knees into level changes.
3 tactical moments to watch
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First fence touch: if Islam pins before 1:30 of R1, that’s JDM trouble.
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After the first sprawl: defend one—does Islam mat-return, or does Jack elbow on the exit?
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Start of R3: if JDM is “fresh,” his jab matters; if shelved on the fence, -260 might look short in hindsight.
What can move the line before fight week
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Weigh-ins & face-offs: rough cuts or flat looks shift lines the same day.
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Camp/health rumors: knees, ribs, infections—20–40 points can swing fast.
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Public vs. sharp money: public pushes favorites; pros may wait to hit the dog on value.
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Card context: stylistically similar results on the same night can nudge narrative—and price.
Style quick sheet
Makhachev (southpaw)
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Entries: short steps, head off-line, body lock at fence.
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Signature: back control, wrist rides, half-guard pressure.
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Risk: long exchanges in the open if the jab stalls his feet.
Jack Della (orthodox)
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Entries: clean 1–2, left hook to body, disciplined frames.
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Signature: layered body work that opens head shots.
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Risk: over-long combos near the fence → reactive doubles.
Numbers at a glance
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-260 → 1.38 (decimal)
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+196 → 2.96 (decimal)
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Implied: ~72% vs ~34% (difference is the vig)
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Typical open → fight-week swing: 20–80 “cents”, depending on action.
Lines vary by sportsbook and update throughout the day. Check your local operator.
Headline angles you can reuse later
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“How JDM’s jab buys the first 90 seconds of every round”
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“Why Makhachev turns takedown defense into 10-8s”
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“Five rounds with a pressure grappler: what it does to an offensive boxer”
The -260 / +196 open says the market trusts Makhachev’s sustainable grappling to mute JDM’s offense across 25 minutes. The flip side: if Jack kills the first clinch and keeps the jab live for 10–12 minutes, momentum—and the price—can flip fast.
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Drop your take: who looks better by Round 3—the glued-on wrestler or the jab-first boxer?
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